2005 - Canada - This photo was said to be taken on a ferry that goes to Vancouver Island in Canada, Nov. 25, 2005. Some debunkers have claimed that the object is nothing more than a bird. Personally, I just can't see that, it certainly looks like a structured, metallic object to me. Sure, some images of UFOs turn out to be birds, but not this one.
Somewhere between 85% to 95% of UFO sightings can usually end up being explained by misidentification or other causes with a fraction remaining highly unusual. The events in Turkey have generated some theories and speculation. One of the most popular hypothesis results from an article on the website www.alcione.org which purports to show a comparison between the May 13th, 2009 video and the deck of a cruise ship.
Eventhough alternative theories should be examined, after reviewing the evidence, this one does not appear to be the likely answer. Below is an examination, that resulted in several factors, which raises doubts about the cruise ship theory.
1. New Evidence Suggests The Object Was Too High In Above The Horizon To Be A Ship
Measuring Angular Elevation Of Aerial Objects In The Night Sky
The moon as a reference point is often used by astronomers to estimate the angular elevation of objects in the night sky such as airplanes, helicopters, and celestial objects. The standard rule is "the moon always equals 0.5 degrees in the sky at any given time" or two moon widths would be 1 degree. The angular diameter of the Moon is proportional to the ratio of the Moon's physical diameter (3476 km) to its distance from Earth (about 384,400 km from the Earth's center on average). Using the small angle approximation, this angular diameter as measured from the center of the Earth works out to be about 0.5 degrees.
During the May 17th, 2009 segment the moon and the unknown object are filmed the same frame for several minutes. This can be used to see how far the object was above the horizon. It could theoretically decide if it was too high in altitude or, if the object was on the horizon, it could support the cruise ship theory. The results are posted below.
When the moon and the object are filmed together it can be used to estimate the angular elevation above the horizon (see below).
Step #1
Determine The Moon's Lunar Position At The Time of The Video.
The planetarium software Stellarium displays star and planet alignments from any place on Earth past or present and is widely used by astronomers. I entered the coordinates of the camera location for May 17, 2009. It appears the moon was 12.3 degrees above the horizon at the time of the footage when viewed from the camera location at 3:06 a.m. (UTC+3). Yeni Kent, Kumburgaz, Turkey rests on (Latitude 41.041 - Longitude 28.420)
Next Step: Triangulate with the moon to determine the unknown object's degree of elevation above the horizon.
The standard astronomy rule is that 2 moon diameters will equal 1 degree and this can be used to measure various things in the sky. As illustrated below, this shows that the unknown object was approximately 7.9 degrees above the horizon in the video.
A distant ship beyond the curvature of the Earth, as Alcione claims, would appear much lower to the horizon than it actually was.
Now that the angular elevation of the moon is known a frame from the video also shows the unknown object 7.9 degrees above the horizon. (See Example)
Now that these measurements have been determined, below are recreations of what the unknown object would look like at the time if you were standing there. It definitely appears too high above the horizon to realistically be considered a cruise ship or yacht.
Recreation #1
NOAA Weather Conditions For May 17, 2009:
Normal sea level pressure (no fog), light wind, maximum temp 87 - low 62, and clear skies. This indicates that the object wasn't obstructed by fog.
Recreation #2
If the object was the bridge of a cruise ship as Alcione claims it was extremely close to the shore and too shallow which would not happen. The measurement seems to show that the unknown object was too high above the surface for the theory to be correct.
A triangulation method using the moon shows that the May 17th, 2009 object was too high above the horizon and not consistent with the height of a cruise ship or yacht.
2. The Nearest Cruise Ship Marina Is Hidden From View
Alcione's article incorrectly labeled the location of the cruise ship marina.
The marina used for visiting cruise ships is the Port Of Karakoy, but that is in the Bosphorus Strait which cannot physically be seen from the witness location.
3. Marine Tracking AIS Data Does Not Show A Cruise Ship
What Is The Automatic Identification System?
The Automatic Identification System (AIS) is an automatic tracking system used by vessel traffic services worldwide for identifying and locating vessels by electronically exchanging ship data. AIS transponders automatically transmit the position of ships at regular intervals via a VHF radio built into the AIS. The position and velocity originate from the ship’s GPS.
Websites like www.marinetraffic.com, www.vesselfinder.com, and others use the "Automatic Identification System" to track daily ship movements worldwide. Note: access to historical AIS data required purchasing a premium membership.
Will The Reports Contain A Cruise Ship Or Yacht?
Below are AIS vessel traffic reports for the Sea of Marmara from May 13 and May 15 of 2009. The information includes the vessel's call sign, date/time, lat and long, and wind speed. Listed first is May 13th between 2:00 a.m. to 4:00 a.m.
If a cruise ship or yacht was in the sighting location it should be listed.
May 13, 2009 Traffic Report
Next Step:
Plot each ship's coordinates into a map to determine if a cruise ship or yacht was in the area of the sighting at the time. The first visual recreation is below. Will it confirm the presence of a ship?
What Will The Traffic Map Explain?
Vessel positions and movement in the Sea of Marmara when the video was taken and A depiction of ship traffic at the time of the sighting. Each vessel found in the AIS report was labeled in a visual recreation using each ship's latitude and longitude.
May 13, 2009 Vessel Traffic Map
More information such as vessel type and are available in public databases, www.vesselfinder.com is one example. Posted below are the vessel details for each call sign in the AIS report.
The details of each listed ship are as follows. 2BZE6 (yacht), out of view 2 am - 4 am, stationary, V4EL (cargo), obstructed, 2 am - 4 am, stationary, TC2642 (tanker), land obstructed, 2 am - 4 am, stationary, TCAJ4 (passenger), too far West, 3 am - 4 am, headed northwest, YMA2010 (sailing), too far West, 4 am, headed northeast, 9HA3009 (bulk carrier), out of view, 2 am - 4 am, stationary. In the Bosphorus Strait and Black Sea VREG7 (bulk carrier), 3ERE3 (gas tanker), TC4796 (passenger), SZLD (fishing). Each ship listed was either obstructed by land or not visible from the camera's location at the time and none were cruise ships.
What Does It Say Exactly?
Several ships were in the Bosphorus Strait, some were in the Black Sea while others were out of range to the west or east. There is not an indication that a cruise ship or yacht was in the range of the camera at the time.
The object was filmed at 3:58 a.m. in the circled area. (Pictured Below)
General Findings For The May 13, 2009 Video
According to the Automatic Identification System, which is required for larger vessels globally by international maritime regulations:
1. There is no evidence that a cruise ship or yacht was in visual range of the camera at 3:59 a.m. on May 13, 2009.
2. Secondly, other vessels (i.e. tankers, fishing, or bulk carriers) were either out of view or not visible in the sighting area while the footage was taken.
The Same Steps Were Repeated For The May 15th, 2009 Segment.
Below is the ship traffic report for 5-15-09 including call sign, lat/long, and time code.
May 15, 2009 AIS Ship Traffic Report
The May 15th sighting took place between 4:59 a.m and 5:32 a.m.
Again the AIS data was entered into a map to determine if a ship was in the sighting area.
May 15, 2009 Traffic Map
For more information on each vessel in the report, the same steps were repeated and yielded the following findings for May 15th, 2009. Similar to May 13th there was zero indication of a vessel present in the camera's direction between 4:59 a.m. and 5:32 a.m. Ship details are listed below.
In the Marmara Sea: TCA2390 (passenger), land obstructed 4 am - 6 am, stationary, SY2442 (fishing), too far west, 5 am - 6 am, headed west, 5BNH3 (tug Supply), obstructed, 4 am - 6 am, stationary, TC7866 (tanker), too far south, 4 am - 6 am, stationary, LAHZ6 (gas tanker), too far south, 4 am - 6 am, stationary C6TZ9 (passenger), too far west, 4 am - 5 am, headed southwest, PHWN (service ship), obstructed, 4 am - 6 am, stationary, 2HEP7 (bulk carrier), land obstructed, 4 am - 6 am, stationary. In the Bosphorus Strait and Black Sea: C6FR5 (passenger), VRAU5 (cargo), 9HZR7 (oil tanker), VQGL (fishing). On May 15, 2009 there was no active cruise ship in the area.
Was There A Cruise Ship Or Yacht In The Sighting Area?
There exists no evidence of a boat or yacht within the vicinity of the witness, for May 13, 2009. It also appears that no active cruise ship or yacht was in the area between 4 a.m and 6 a.m.
The May 15th, 2009 unknown object was located in the circled area. (Pictured Below)
General Findings For May 15, 2009 Video
We have learned the following for May 15, 2009 thanks to the Automatic Identification System, which is required for larger vessels, by the International Maritime Association:
1. AIS reports for May 15th do not contain any evidence of a cruise ship or yacht in the unknown object's direction between 4:59 am and 5:32 am on May 15, 2009.
2. Similar to the previous report there was also no indication that other ships (tankers, fishing, or bulk carriers) were in the vicinity of the witness.
General Findings For Both Dates:
AIS Ship Traffic Reports Contain No Evidence Of a Cruise Ship or Yacht In The Sighting Area At The Time.
More reasons continued below....
4. There Are No Eye Witnesses To Confirm A Cruise Ship Or Yacht Was Filmed.
No residents in the country of Turkey have come forward who witnessed a cruise ship or yacht in the area. Where is the captain and passengers? Following widespread media coverage in Turkey someone to confirm the presence of a cruise ship should have come forward by now.
Nobody has come forward who remembers seeing a cruise ship in the area.
5. 95% Of The Objects Don't Match Alcione's Cruise Ship
Speculation that a cruise ship explains the Turkey footage is based entirely on a single frame from just one date out of twenty three. Alcione did not include 2007, 2008, and most of 2009.
The entire cruise ship theory is based only on the following photo.
If there was only one incident the cruise ship theory would be seriously considered. But there were actually 23 different dates of footage over 3 years of which the majority does not fit Alcione's image. When all the footage is considered the unknown objects do not match Alcione's cruise ship.
July 2, 2008 and June 8, 2008
When the outline and shape of both these dates are compared to Alcione's cruise ship the configurations are not similar.
Shape And Outline Do Not Match
There are additional anomalies not mentioned in Alcione's article of footage showing objects that don't match the outline of a ship.
August 10, 2007 and August 1, 2007
Overlays Do Not Match
May 23, 2008 Unknown Object
Another unusual domed object that visually has a different shape than Alcione's photo was witnessed early during of the events of 2008.
June 12, 2008 Sighting
The June 12th, 2008 video is one of the more interesting. It is yet another example that Alcione did not include which doesn't match the bridge of a ship.
The May 15, 2009 Sightings
May 15, 2009 was one of several occasions when the objects were captured both during the daytime and also at night.
When comparing with the cruise ship, pictured on the left, the shape and features have different shapes.
Do Not Match
The Majority Of The Objects Filmed Actually Don't Match The Outline, Of The Cruise Ship.
23 different dated segments were not mentioned in Alcione's article.
Summary:
When all the footage is considered most of the unknown objects do not match the shape of the cruise ship in Alcione's photo.
7. Some Of The UFOs Were Filmed Over Land
According to Turkish researchers and statements made by Yalcin Yalman, the July 30, 2007, August 31, 2008, and May 14, 2009 videos were not taken by the sea, but instead over land. The May 14th, 2009 video is just one example. It shows an unknown object moving at cloud level in front of a large group of people outside a conference miles away from the ocean.
When UFOs were filmed over land it would seem to rule out the cruise ship theory for these instances. Below are examples of the video taken over land.
May 14, 2009 Sighting
The May 14th, 2009 sighting took place miles away from the ocean.
July 30, 2007 Footage:
This footage of a glowing ball of light eventually became a dome shaped craft. It was filmed several blocks away from the waterfront at a condominium owned by Yalcin's father which is a good distance away from the sea.
The sightings that filmed objects over land and not the sea theoretically rule out the possibility of a cruise ship in these instances.
8. The Light Ball Phenomenon Does Not Resemble A Cruise Ship Or Yacht
Throughout history orange balls of light have been routinely spotted in the presence of unidentified flying objects. Why they are present remains unknown. Again this is the case with Yalcin's film, which curiously contains multiple sequences of lights that are seen during, just before, or just after the other objects. Witness accounts also describe these being present. Multiple straight forward reasons make a cruise ship extremely unlikely to be the cause of these orange light balls
Example #1 June 9, 2008
During the 2008 wave of sightings, on June 9th, Yalcin and other witnesses observed a motionless glowing ball of light above the water while leaving a bright reflection. Whatever the light is remains unknown, however for clear reasons Alcione's theory fails to explain the cause. (More Below)
June 9, 2008 Video Segment
The ball of light is not likely a cruise ship or yacht.
In most instances the orange light phenomenon happened at the same location, during, just before, or just after the other objects. (Continued Below)
Example #2 July 4, 2008
Almost exactly a month later another identical ball of light was sighted in the same spot.
During the 2008 wave, unidentified objects were being seen by local residents routinely. On July 4th, 2008, this unexplained light was filmed beginning at 5:21 a.m. until 5:53 a.m. There are various visual reasons a cruise ship or yacht is unlikely to be the cause.
The unexplained light is too far above the horizon to be a boat.
July 4, 2008 Video Segment
The same day earlier that morning at 2:43 a.m. local time in Turkey the following circular or disc shaped object was present above the sea. Yalcin was filming from the same general vantage point on the beach and facing in the same direction.
Curiously both sequences were filmed in the same location during the events of July 4, 2008. It might be considered possible that it's the same object.
There is a possibility we looking at the same object.
Example #3 July 30, 2007
According to recent interviews Yalcin Yalman stated that the July 30, 2007 segment was filmed from the outdoor balcony at his father's condo several blocks away from the Yeni Kent facility on the beaches of Kumburgaz. First he noticed a dome shaped anomaly in the distance.
Only 25 minutes later that morning at 5:15 a.m.
The sun is now starting to rise as he again observes something moving across the sky from left to right eventually going behind a chimney.
These anomalies are not addressed in Alciones article which raises questions about the alleged "cruise ship theory".
July 30, 2007 Video Footage
Example #4 June 16, 2008
These instances do not display characteristics of a boat.
June 16, 2008 Unexplained Lights
June 16, 2008 Video Segment
Example #5 July 2, 2008
Curiously the formation of orange lights have a distinctly similar shape to the anomalies only a couple weeks earlier.
July 2, 2008 Unexplained Lights
There does not appear to be any visual evidence of a boat.
One hour earlier:
At 3:53 am that morning this unidentified craft was filmed and witnessed hovering over the sea in the same area as the lights. (Pictured Below)
The Physical Craft And Orange Lights Remain Unknown.
July 2, 2008 Video Segment
Example #6 May 15, 2009
May 15, 2009 Unexplained Light Phenomenon
21 minutes earlier this craft hovered in the same location.
In Conclusion:
There is no sufficient evidence to support the theory that a distant cruise ship is responsible for the objects captured on film in Turkey between 2007 and 2009.
1. Triangulation shows the unknown object was too high above the horizon to be a ship or yacht.
2. Alcione incorrectly labeled the cruise ship marina's location.
3. AIS ship traffic reports do not list a cruise ship in the area.
4. No eyewitnesses can confirm seeing a cruise ship in the area at the time of the sightings.
5. Alcione only compared one frame from May 13, 2009, but 23 different video segments from 2007, 2008, and most of 2009 are not similar to the cruise ship photo.
6. Cruise ships have a lot of lights at night not seen in the Turkey video.
7. Some of the UFOs were filmed above land areas.
8. Instances of light ball phenomenon are too high above the horizon to be cruise ship.
